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Baseline National Assessment of the Caribbean Spiny Lobster (Panulirus argus) Fishery of Belize

Prepared By:

Belize City, Belize - November 2025

The Baseline Assessment of the Caribbean Spiny Lobster (Panulirus argus) Fishery of Belize has been prepared by Kendra Karr of Pincoya Solutions, at the request of the Belize Fisheries Department, Ministry of Blue Economy & Marine Conservation, and WWF-US, in support of the Project Finance for Permanence (PFP) initiative. This assessment report has been reviewed by stakeholders and endorsed by the Belize Fisheries Department.

Summary:

A multi-indicator baseline assessment, integrating long-term fishery-dependent data (1977–2024) and more sporadic fishery-independent monitoring (2004–2025), was used to characterize the status and fishing pressure across Belize’s spiny lobster fishery. This work is intended as a baseline rather than a comprehensive stock assessment, providing a structured starting point for adaptive management. Findings should be interpreted as directional, with the expectation that continued monitoring will refine and strengthen detected trends. As with all fisheries assessments, the true stock size and exact population status cannot be known with complete certainty. The assessment therefore relies on combining multiple independent data sources and evaluating a suite of performance indicators, each with differing levels of interpretive strength. Because data availability varies across regions and years, these results represent the best available evidence of current patterns but may not fully capture all aspects of the national fishery.

Using fishery-dependent landings data from cooperatives and fishery-independent monitoring across Belize, multiple indicators of fishery performance were evaluated, including total annual production, national catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE), early-season CPUE, average carapace length from landings, fishery-independent size structure, Spawning Potential Ratio (SPR), and MSY-based proxies for F/FMSY and B/BMSY. Total production has remained relatively stable, with only a modest ~5% decline in recent years. The average carapace length of landed lobsters has increased to 86.6 mm (7-oz tail category), up from 85.8 mm (6-oz category), likely reflecting both market preferences and strengthened compliance with U.S. import regulations.

Length-based results were complemented by a Catch-MSY (CMSY) analysis using long-term catch data (1977–2024) and resilience-based priors for Panulirus argus. CMSY does not directly estimate a full surplus production model but instead identifies combinations of productivity (r) and biomass (B) trajectories that are compatible with historical catch patterns. The resulting MSY-based indicators should therefore be interpreted as proxies rather than precise biological quantities. Nonetheless, the CMSY outputs suggest that recent exploitation levels may be elevated, with 2024 estimates indicating F/FMSY > 1.0 and B/BMSY < 1.0, signaling fishing pressure above levels consistent with long-term sustainability and biomass below the model-estimated optimum.

National CPUE has declined over time, largely driven by increasing effort, measured by the number of licensed vessels and fishers, without corresponding increases in catch. Daily cooperative landing records show that early-season CPUE generally exceeds late-season CPUE, with recent early-season values near the 10-year running average. However, uncertainties in effort data, including inconsistent reporting, gear variability, and multi-species targeting, underscore the need for improved data quality and standardized effort.

Given these findings and data limitations, the fishery should continue to be managed precautionarily. Maintaining or enhancing existing harvest controls, such as seasonal closures and minimum legal sizes, will help safeguard stock productivity. Future assessments will be strengthened by investments in data quality control, expanded monitoring of the domestic market, and the implementation of a nationally standardized fishery-independent monitoring program. Enhanced spatial and temporal survey coverage, particularly of size structure, recruitment, and reproductive potential, will support more robust indicators such as SPR and improve confidence in trend validation. Moving forward, integrating multiple independent indicators across both fishery-dependent and independent data sources will remain central to adaptive, science-based management of the lobster fishery.